Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7164…64a7 crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-19%) realized −$100 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +218% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +165% what you keep after slip
Net edge+165%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$159
crypto 46% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+187.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +217.5% +187.2% 50% 50% -44.8%
≤30d 4 +217.5% +187.2% 50% 50% -44.8%
≤90d 4 +217.5% +187.2% 50% 50% -44.8%
all 4 +217.5% +187.2% 50% 50% -44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +187.2% 50% -44.8%
10% +159.8% 50% -50.1%
15% +134.7% 50% -54.9%
20% +111.7% 25% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +217% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$100 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)4 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 21¢ 40¢ $50 $94 +$44 (+88%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 34¢ 29¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 87¢ 73¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 June 15-21? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$109 +1021%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.57 · official $256.57 (match) · 15 history records