Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7164…7ff7 world 63 markets active 5d ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,763 (-34%) realized −$9,615 · open +$852
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate17%10W / 50L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4,788
14 days−$4,788
30 days−$5,378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1,284
other 34% −$3,270
sports 19% −$3,834
finance 2% −$389
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-59.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -76.3% -78.5% 10% 10% -63.0%
≤30d 12 -80.2% -82.1% 8% 8% -65.6%
≤90d 37 -68.0% -71.0% 11% 8% -56.2%
all 60 -55.6% -59.8% 17% 15% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.8% 15% -44.9%
10% -63.7% 15% -50.1%
15% -67.2% 13% -55.0%
20% -70.4% 12% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -47% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$640 vs −$321 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$1,752
Realized−$9,615
Unrealized+$852
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses10 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage154d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $300 $1,153 +$853 (+284%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1,345 −$1,310 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $611 −$38 -6%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,903 +$830 +44%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $509 −$500 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 11 $448 −$443 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Italy (-1.5) Jun 03 $295 −$290 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 06 $300 −$47 -16%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 06 $410 −$30 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap May 05 $800 +$1,960 +245%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 15 $200 −$196 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $543 −$530 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 15 $300 −$12 -4%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $540 −$540 -100%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 12 $300 −$289 -96%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $500 +$643 +129%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $300 −$293 -98%
Will AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Apr 11 $300 −$293 -98%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $548 −$548 -100%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $295 −$295 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $650 −$650 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 01 $500 +$2 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? Mar 29 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $918 −$918 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 12 $376 −$376 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 12 $150 +$48 +32%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? Mar 12 $151 −$49 -33%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 12 $322 −$4 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? Mar 11 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Mar 11 $296 +$526 +178%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Mar 10 $402 −$402 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $103 +$72 +70%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $100 −$74 -74%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $177 −$140 -79%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $100 −$60 -60%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $106 +$94 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $27 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $616 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $573 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $611 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $182 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $547 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $86 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 40¢ $509 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) BUY Legacy 62¢ $448 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,817 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $1,017 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1,015 6d
Spread: Italy (-1.5) BUY Italy 42¢ $295 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $300 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $300 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $300 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $300 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $253 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 25¢ $380 42d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 42d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $410 42d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $300 42d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 38¢ $200 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $383 63d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) SELL FC Bayern München 44¢ $288 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $160 63d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 45¢ $300 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,752.09 · official $1,754.92 (match) · 117 history records