Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7165…accc crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$146 (+1%) realized +$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate99%69W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$17
14 days+$18
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$32
other 7% +$112
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.6% -8.0% 100% 8% -8.8%
≤30d 28 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 62 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 3% -9.2%
all 70 +1.4% -8.3% 99% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 4% -8.8%
10% -17.1% 1% -17.5%
15% -25.1% 1% -25.5%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×140.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9706.98 per $1 lost it wins $9706.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses69 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage97d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $449 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $363 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $78 +$13 +16%
Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 23 $39 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $438 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $438 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $437 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $434 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $282 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $433 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $433 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $432 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $416 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $415 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? May 18 $423 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 16 $421 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $420 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $420 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 13 $417 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $418 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $416 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $410 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 -0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 09 $416 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 04 $414 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 1? May 01 $384 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 1h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $449 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $196 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $91 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $363 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $37 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $53 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $91 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 78¢ $78 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $300 5d
Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $39 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $200 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $199 6d
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $438 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $438 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $437 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $399 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $36 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $304 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $125 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $5 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $152 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $282 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $150 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $433 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.86 · official $54.86 (match) · 160 history records