Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7166…39e4 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%22W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$1
world 40% −$7
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% +$1
sports 3% −$2
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -2.1% -11.4% 27% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 15 -2.1% -11.4% 27% 0% -10.6%
all 47 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -10.5%
10% -20.1% 0% -19.1%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage472d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $33 −$6 -18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $27 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $25 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $154 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $46 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 27 $10 $0 -1%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 21 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 21 $8 $0 +2%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 15 $9 $0 +5%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
US military action on Yemen by Friday? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 06 $1 $0 +14%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $9 $0 +2%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $13 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 8? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $25 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 28¢ $27 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $33 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $26 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $3 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $22 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $25 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $35 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $35 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $50 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.38 · official $42.38 (match) · 144 history records