Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
71 0x7167…f079 world 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 449d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +106% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +87% what you keep after slip
Net edge+87%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$1
finance 14% $0
other 8% +$1
politics 8% +$1
crypto 5% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+86.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.7%
all 19 +106.5% +86.9% 63% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +86.9% 5% -9.1%
10% +69.0% 5% -17.8%
15% +52.6% 5% -25.7%
20% +37.7% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +107% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +224% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage449d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $42 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $23 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $30 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $43 $0 -1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $11 $0 +2%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 24 $0 +$1 +3600%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 07 $2 $0 -1%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $10 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $10 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $27 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $27 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $2 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 25d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 338d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 97¢ $11 357d
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? SELL Yes $1 359d
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? BUY No 98¢ $1 360d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records