Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7168…8394 other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$33
other 21% −$13
politics 14% $0
sports 8% +$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 18 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 18 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -12.6%
all 40 -3.0% -12.2% 38% 2% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -12.3%
10% -20.6% 0% -20.7%
15% -28.3% 0% -28.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage286d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 25 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $36 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $1 $0 -19%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $66 +$2 +3%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $43 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $63 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $38 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $185 −$33 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $30 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $75 −$2 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 15 $7 +$2 +21%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 30 $3 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $30 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $1 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 21 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 19 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $33 10m
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $28 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $36 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $31 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $34 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $34 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $31 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $31 7d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records