Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7168…233e other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$3
politics 31% −$3
sports 12% −$29
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 91 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 126 +1.1% -8.5% 11% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 3% -10.0%
10% -17.3% 3% -18.6%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.4%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 112
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage125d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $53 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 25 $52 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $92 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in April? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $90 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $157 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 17h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 17h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 10d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 10d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $37 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 18d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 19d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 20d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 20d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $38 20d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $52 20d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $52 21d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 21d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 21d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 21d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 22d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 23d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $47 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 25d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 360 history records