Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7169…3ca6 other 1115 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 238d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%666W / 416L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$28
14 days+$35
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$63
politics 29% +$78
tech 8% −$37
world 7% −$172
crypto 5% +$46
sports 5% +$36
finance 4% −$3
culture 3% +$44
economics 3% +$56
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +9.9% -0.6% 77% 75% +3.2%
≤30d 173 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 58% -12.5%
≤90d 376 -8.3% -17.0% 58% 52% -15.1%
all 1082 +1.5% -8.2% 62% 56% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 56% -9.7%
10% -17.0% 38% -18.3%
15% -25.0% 27% -26.2%
20% -32.3% 22% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses666 / 416
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1082 / 1115
History coverage238d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 1082 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 57¢ 71¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Will "Biology" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? No 85¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 71¢ 80¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next PMQ? No 87¢ 67¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? No 44¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+48%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? No 53¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 54¢ 40¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 9¢ 10¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? No 61¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? No 66¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? No 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? No 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? No 50¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 47¢ 54¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 82¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? No 42¢ 46¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? No 78¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? No 39¢ 38¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? No 10¢ 5¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-53%)
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 50¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? No 82¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 51¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next PMQ? No 86¢ 47¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Warsh say "Open-Minded" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 18 $2 +$1 +59%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 18 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 18 $1 +$1 +96%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 18 $2 +$1 +41%
Will "Texas" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod Jun 18 $2 +$1 +56%
Will "UFC" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca Jun 18 $7 +$2 +21%
Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Con Jun 17 $5 +$2 +53%
Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Confere Jun 17 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $1 $0 +39%
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conferenc Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +70%
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +164%
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Interest rate" this week? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Trump say "Warrior" this week? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during meeting with F Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Trump say "Knicks" this week? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will MrBeast say "Donate" or "Donated" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Will MrBeast say "Karl" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +20%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $9 +$4 +47%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Czechia vs South Afri BUY No 89¢ $1 14m
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 51¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Czechia vs South Afri BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA SELL No 65¢ $3 1h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY No 39¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY No 39¢ $2 1h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa BUY No 50¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Czechia vs South Afr BUY No 83¢ $1 6h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY No 69¢ $1 9h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY No 53¢ $1 9h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl BUY No 61¢ $1 9h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 36¢ $1 9h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the Mexico vs South Korea BUY No 78¢ $2 9h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY No 53¢ $2 9h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl BUY No 61¢ $2 9h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs South Africa F BUY No 51¢ $2 9h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY No 39¢ $1 9h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI BUY No 35¢ $1 9h
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Canada vs Qatar BUY No 82¢ $1 9h
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Czechia vs South BUY No 82¢ $2 9h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA BUY No 79¢ $2 9h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY No 39¢ $2 9h
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the Mexico vs South Korea BUY No 42¢ $1 9h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY No 25¢ $1 9h
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Czechia vs S BUY No 47¢ $1 9h
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Canada vs Qa BUY No 49¢ $2 9h
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the Mexico vs South Korea F BUY No 50¢ $2 9h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor BUY No 66¢ $2 9h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY No 33¢ $1 9h
Will "Biology" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY No 85¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.13 · official $61.13 (match) · 3500 history records