Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7169…aaf5 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$642 (+25%) realized +$441 · open +$201
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$487
crypto 23% +$254
other 19% −$145
world 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +57.6% +42.6% 50% 50% +16.6%
≤30d 16 +57.6% +42.6% 50% 50% +16.6%
≤90d 16 +57.6% +42.6% 50% 50% +16.6%
all 16 +57.6% +42.6% 50% 50% +16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.6% 50% +16.6%
10% +29.0% 50% +5.5%
15% +16.5% 50% -4.7%
20% +5.1% 50% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +149% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$81 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,266
Realized+$441
Unrealized+$201
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions13
Markets (closed)16 / 30
History coverage3d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $530 $749 +$219 (+41%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 20¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 38¢ 40¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $51 −$6 -12%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48 +$28 +60%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$115 +114%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$449 +874%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $100 +$60 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 +$60 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 +$263 +262%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $188 −$184 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 13¢ $45 53m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes $43 54m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $51 57m
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $51 58m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $51 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: BUY 12¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $48 31h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $100 31h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $101 31h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $100 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $62 31h
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 3d
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $99 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $98 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,266.30 · official $1,366.30 · 44 history records