Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:57:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
71 0x716b…9fcf weather 236 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate81%174W / 41L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$10
14 days−$2
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$38
other 0% −$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +2.7% -7.1% 88% 71% -7.9%
≤30d 215 +0.4% -9.2% 81% 70% -7.9%
≤90d 215 +0.4% -9.2% 81% 70% -7.9%
all 215 +0.4% -9.2% 81% 70% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 70% -7.9%
10% -17.9% 24% -16.7%
15% -25.8% 13% -24.8%
20% -33.1% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses174 / 41
Open positions21
Markets (closed)215 / 236
History coverage27d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 25? No 86¢ 86¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 25? No 89¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? No 86¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 25? No 91¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 26? No 83¢ 74¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 25? No 86¢ 90¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? No 88¢ 84¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? No 70¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? No 86¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 25? No 85¢ 85¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 25? No 86¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 25? No 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 25? No 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 25? No 91¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 26? No 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 25? No 80¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 26? No 86¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 26? No 87¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? No 86¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? No 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 25? No 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 24? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 24? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 24 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 23? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 23? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 23? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June Jun 24 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 22? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $15 9m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 83¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 88¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 88¢ $7 7h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 91¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 87¢ $4 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? BUY No 86¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 86¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 87¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 25? BUY No 85¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY No 86¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 70¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 26? BUY No 94¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 25? BUY No 86¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY No 87¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY No 87¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 87¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 86¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 86¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 89¢ $9 26h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 89¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 25? BUY No 80¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 89¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 89¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $0 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.36 · official $132.36 (match) · 535 history records