Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x716c…32f3
crypto · 116 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$54 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses62 / 53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day93.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$85
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 56¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$7 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $86 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$89
other 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -10.2% -18.7% 54% 37% -20.7%
≤30d 115 -10.2% -18.7% 54% 37% -20.7%
≤90d 115 -10.2% -18.7% 54% 37% -20.7%
all 115 -10.2% -18.7% 54% 37% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover93.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 37% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 23% -28.3%
15% -33.6% 17% -35.2%
20% -40.1% 11% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.07 · official $3.98 (match) · 352 history records