Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:47:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7170…d412 crypto 1321 markets active 1d ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$903 (-23%) realized −$903 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%541W / 717L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$7
14 days+$59
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$346
sports 1% −$9
weather 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +18.1% +6.9% 23% 21% -10.0%
≤30d 596 +5.5% -4.5% 42% 41% -8.9%
≤90d 1258 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 41% -18.5%
all 1258 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 41% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 41% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 38% -26.3%
15% -30.8% 34% -33.4%
20% -37.6% 28% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$903
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses541 / 717
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1258 / 1321
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1258 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$6 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$10 +1900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$6 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $8 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records