Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x7170…2bd0
other · 110 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$11 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses62 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)103 / 110
History coverage76d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 7 History 103 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$26
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $20 +$18 +88%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 24 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$10 +101%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6 +$3 +57%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? May 03 $8 +$11 +137%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a dra May 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? May 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $5 +$2 +44%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Emilio Nava Apr 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 76% +$7
sports 18% +$2
crypto 5% +$1
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $3 1h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 13d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $38 13d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 13d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 13d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 43¢ $5 19d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 19d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 19d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 19d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 19d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 19d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 19d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 19d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 19d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 19d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 19d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 19d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 19d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 23 -13.2% -21.4% 52% 52% -25.9%
≤90d 103 +4.8% -5.2% 60% 59% -7.6%
all 103 +4.8% -5.2% 60% 59% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 59% -7.6%
10% -14.2% 55% -16.4%
15% -22.5% 46% -24.5%
20% -30.1% 38% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.25 · official $44.25 (match) · 205 history records