Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x7171…7af9
weather · 500 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$317 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$189 · open −$141
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$770
Realized+$189
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses166 / 291
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions48
Markets (closed)457 / 500
History coverage40d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day83.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 48 History 457 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$1
14 days−$60
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $26 $37 +$10 (+38%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+6%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+9%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-22%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $29 $22 −$7 (-25%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-35%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-37%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-44%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +102%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 +$8 +169%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 12 $1 $0 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 7? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 6? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -69%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 4? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $30 −$26 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$10 +193%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 −$3 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$6 +215%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 11 $30 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -61%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 11 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +134%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 09 $30 +$3 +12%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $30 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -56%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 09 $70 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $30 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -67%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 08 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -52%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $30 +$26 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$10 +215%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $90 −$18 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $30 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Jun 07 $51 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$3 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$3 -56%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 06 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 +$2 +143%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 28% −$18
weather 22% −$189
other 17% −$49
sports 13% +$192
world 7% +$66
economics 5% +$1
finance 3% +$33
tech 3% +$19
crypto 2% +$3
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 5m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 7m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $18 7m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 3¢ $17 12m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 85¢ $6 34m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 57m
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $35 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 5¢ $34 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 4¢ $28 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $24 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -14.7% -22.8% 36% 34% -9.4%
≤30d 296 -3.5% -12.7% 34% 31% -5.4%
≤90d 457 -5.7% -14.7% 36% 30% -6.0%
all 457 -5.7% -14.7% 36% 30% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover83.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 30% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 19% -15.0%
15% -30.3% 18% -23.2%
20% -37.1% 18% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $770.02 · official $769.88 (match) · 3500 history records