Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7172…5e45 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$155 (+2%) realized +$175 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%29W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$281
7 days+$300
14 days+$159
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$15
other 25% +$290
politics 16% +$5
tech 10% −$10
culture 8% −$21
economics 4% +$22
crypto 4% −$9
sports 3% −$136
finance 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -10.1% -18.7% 14% 14% +19.7%
≤30d 45 -18.0% -25.9% 4% 4% -3.3%
≤90d 99 -9.6% -18.2% 18% 5% -8.5%
all 113 -7.6% -16.4% 26% 9% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 9% -7.7%
10% -24.4% 8% -16.6%
15% -31.7% 7% -24.6%
20% -38.4% 7% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$7 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized+$175
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses29 / 84
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)113 / 119
History coverage158d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $354 $351 −$3 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-55%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 16¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $72 −$3 -5%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $41 −$13 -30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $213 +$297 +140%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $151 −$148 -98%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $52 −$14 -26%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 20–30%? Jun 23 $34 −$23 -69%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wo Jun 23 $17 $0 -2%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 23 $4 $0 -8%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G Jun 23 $1 $0 -8%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the France vs Ir Jun 23 $0 $0 -95%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 23 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Worl Jun 23 $17 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs Iraq FIFA Worl Jun 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $294 +$206 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 17 $36 −$3 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 17 $44 −$3 -7%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Designer Brands (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $8 −$5 -59%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 07 $12 −$3 -25%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in June? Jun 07 $12 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 07 $7 $0 -3%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 07 $5 $0 -4%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $6 $0 -3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 07 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 07 $38 −$2 -5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $3 −$2 -55%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 06 $11 −$9 -81%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $14 −$4 -27%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $18 −$3 -15%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market clos Jun 02 $19 −$1 -8%
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $5 −$2 -51%
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 02 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 02 $15 $0 -1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 02 $23 −$3 -13%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 02 $26 −$7 -28%
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government May 30 $9 −$2 -27%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 in May? May 29 $1 $0 -8%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30? May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? May 29 $15 −$3 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May? May 24 $44 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? May 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 24 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $69 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $358 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 14h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 17h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $72 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $151 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $213 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $38 2d
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 20–30%? SELL No 22¢ $11 3d
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wo SELL Yes 82¢ $16 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No $3 3d
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wo BUY Yes 83¢ $17 3d
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G SELL No 18¢ $1 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No $4 3d
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G BUY No 19¢ $1 3d
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 20–30%? BUY No 68¢ $34 3d
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the France vs Ir SELL No $0 3d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 3d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 3d
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the France vs Ir BUY No $0 3d
Will the announcers say "Record" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Worl SELL Yes 85¢ $17 3d
Will the announcers say "Record" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Worl BUY Yes 86¢ $17 3d
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs Iraq FIFA Worl SELL No 95¢ $19 3d
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs Iraq FIFA Worl BUY No 95¢ $19 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $294 7d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $138 7d
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 67¢ $33 9d
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 72¢ $36 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $41 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.59 · official $449.60 (match) · 467 history records