Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
71 0x7175…ae4e other 377 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,681 (+7%) realized +$3,457 · open +$224
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%198W / 115L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$5,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$272
7 days+$536
14 days+$581
30 days+$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$2,048
finance 18% +$537
other 13% +$808
sports 11% +$375
politics 8% +$175
weather 7% −$304
crypto 0% −$13
tech 0% −$30
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +76.1% +59.3% 59% 57% +4.5%
≤30d 158 +6.8% -3.3% 54% 45% -5.5%
≤90d 264 +23.4% +11.6% 64% 51% -2.8%
all 313 +15.9% +4.9% 63% 46% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 46% -3.3%
10% -5.1% 33% -12.5%
15% -14.3% 24% -21.0%
20% -22.7% 20% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$29 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$5,281
Realized+$3,457
Unrealized+$224
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses198 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions64
Markets (closed)313 / 377
History coverage122d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 64 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 55¢ $1,261 $1,526 +$265 (+21%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $901 $673 −$228 (-25%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $250 $345 +$95 (+38%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $252 $262 +$10 (+4%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $183 $259 +$76 (+42%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $154 $187 +$33 (+21%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 78¢ 76¢ $179 $174 −$6 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 82¢ $150 $165 +$15 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $118 $141 +$24 (+20%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $113 $131 +$18 (+16%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $118 $124 +$5 (+4%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $75 $86 +$11 (+14%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 82¢ $90 $82 −$8 (-8%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 82¢ $70 $82 +$12 (+18%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 79¢ 75¢ $79 $75 −$4 (-5%)
Will Curaçao be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 43¢ 32¢ $93 $71 −$22 (-24%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $63 $66 +$2 (+4%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $63 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 68¢ $51 $54 +$3 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $61 $53 −$7 (-12%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 92¢ $35 $46 +$11 (+32%)
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 80¢ 89¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 57¢ 59¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$45 +151%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $188 +$112 +60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $13 +$7 +60%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$44 +388%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $116 +$64 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 20 $7 +$13 +172%
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $24 +$26 +109%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $4 +$16 +365%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $97 +$13 +13%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$12 +23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $345 +$255 +74%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $6 +$14 +224%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$39 +65%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $24 −$11 -46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $186 +$62 +33%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $94 −$31 -33%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $786 +$242 +31%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $348 −$343 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $85 −$54 -63%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 −$17 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -2%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +299%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $114 +$46 +40%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $154 +$16 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $69 +$150 +219%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$69 +226%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $150 +$140 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$38 +178%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $75 1h
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $40 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 22h
Will Curaçao be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cu BUY Yes 44¢ $35 29h
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess BUY Yes 58¢ $55 31h
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess BUY Yes 58¢ $3 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 35h
Will Curaçao be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cu BUY Yes 46¢ $4 35h
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup BUY No 46¢ $23 35h
Will Curaçao be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cu BUY Yes 46¢ $7 35h
Will Curaçao be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cu BUY Yes 46¢ $35 35h
Will Curaçao be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cu BUY Yes 44¢ $4 35h
Will Curaçao be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cu BUY Yes 44¢ $4 35h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 35h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 35h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 35h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 37h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $28 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 32¢ $63 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 20¢ $20 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,280.61 · official $5,280.13 (match) · 1230 history records