Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7177…ddef politics 6 markets active 67d ago coverage 40d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$858,826 (+1661%) realized +$858,826 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,618per market
Trades / day86.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$22,014
culture 16% −$7,815
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-51.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 6 -45.8% -51.0% 50% 17% -61.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.0% 17% -61.7%
10% -55.7% 0% -65.4%
15% ← realistic here -59.9% 0% -68.7%
20% -63.9% 0% -71.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
266.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$443 vs −$10,386 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$858,826
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$8,618
Trades / day86.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 31 $6,189 +$397 +6%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 31 $14,100 +$900 +6%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 24 $7,847 −$7,847 -100%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 24 $11,534 −$11,534 -100%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 24 $11,778 −$11,778 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $260 +$32 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $390 66d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $340 66d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $4 66d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $0 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $1 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $1 67d
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $2 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $28 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $16 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $34 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $53 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $2 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $2 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $7 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $40 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $7 67d
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $17 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $4 67d
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $5 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $40 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $80 67d
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $1 67d
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $1 67d
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $1 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $3 67d
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $1 67d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $155 68d
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $0 68d
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes $1 68d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No $10 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records