Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7178…7400 crypto 948 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$133 (-3%) realized −$111 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate90%856W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$57
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$110
other 9% −$63
finance 2% +$22
world 1% −$15
politics 0% −$4
weather 0% +$6
economics 0% +$6
sports 0% −$5
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 18% -16.0%
≤30d 26 -1.0% -10.4% 42% 31% -22.3%
≤90d 947 -1.2% -10.6% 90% 8% -12.5%
all 947 -1.2% -10.6% 90% 8% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 8% -12.5%
10% -19.2% 5% -20.9%
15% -27.0% 5% -28.6%
20% -34.2% 3% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses856 / 91
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)947 / 948
History coverage71d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 947 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 21 $32 −$1 -3%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +63%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -35%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Juan Soto lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular seaso Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 21 $2 $0 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -25%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +17%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -37%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +194%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -66%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$6 +59%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$1 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $16 −$11 -71%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$13 +27%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $63 +$23 +36%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $217 −$46 -21%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Natio May 25 $1 $0 +43%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$7 +303%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11AM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11PM ET May 02 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10PM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6PM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 30? May 01 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2PM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1PM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $20 +$7 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C on April 25? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 19°C on April 24? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 27? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on April 25? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 24? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $17 2h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2h
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2h
Will Juan Soto lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular seaso SELL Yes $0 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 95¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $2 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $2 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 85¢ $2 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 87¢ $2 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up $0 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up $0 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up $0 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up $0 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up $0 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up $0 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up $0 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 43¢ $0 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 41¢ $0 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 42¢ $0 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 42¢ $0 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 42¢ $0 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 47¢ $0 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 46¢ $0 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 57¢ $0 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 42¢ $0 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 42¢ $0 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 38¢ $0 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 36¢ $0 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 36¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.47 · official $4.86 · 2052 history records