Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7178…f761 crypto 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+0%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%126W / 13L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$69
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 12 -16.3% -24.3% 83% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 36 -10.8% -19.3% 86% 0% -9.3%
all 139 -3.0% -12.2% 91% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -28.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses126 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage246d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $265 $265 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $264 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $264 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? Jun 15 $262 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $261 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 10 $261 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $260 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $260 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $258 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $254 +$4 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 27 $254 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET May 16 $247 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? May 11 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? May 06 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $247 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin above 74,600 on April 30, 11PM ET? May 01 $99 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 78,200 on April 30, 11PM ET? May 01 $149 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 75,800 on April 29, 10AM ET? May 01 $87 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 75,400 on April 29, 10AM ET? May 01 $161 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 29 $246 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $245 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 19? Apr 20 $245 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $245 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10PM ET Apr 13 $16 −$9 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $254 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $254 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $253 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $252 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $252 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $251 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28? Mar 27 $251 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $251 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $248 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $247 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $247 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $246 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $246 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $245 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $244 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $242 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $242 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $241 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $250 −$8 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 02 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 28? Feb 27 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $248 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $265 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $264 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $264 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $262 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $262 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $261 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $261 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $260 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $260 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $260 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $258 18d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $254 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $254 24d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $254 30d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $93 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $76 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $76 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? BUY No 100¢ $250 43d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $250 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $247 49d
Bitcoin above 78,200 on April 30, 11PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $149 49d
Bitcoin above 74,600 on April 30, 11PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 49d
Bitcoin above 75,800 on April 29, 10AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 51d
Bitcoin above 75,400 on April 29, 10AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $161 51d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $248 51d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $246 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.87 · official $264.87 (match) · 292 history records