Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
71 0x717b…4c90 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 424d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$782 (+171%) realized +$796 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt +121% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +100% what you keep after slip
Net edge+100%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$14
other 36% +$779
sports 10% +$14
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+100.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +33.2% +20.5% 100% 100% +20.5%
≤90d 1 +33.2% +20.5% 100% 100% +20.5%
all 15 +121.4% +100.3% 47% 40% +106.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +100.3% 40% +106.5%
10% +81.2% 33% +86.7%
15% +63.7% 27% +68.7%
20% +47.6% 20% +52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +121% · $-wt +400% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +251% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$7 · ×18.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.84 per $1 lost it wins $15.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

424d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$796
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage424d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $238 $224 −$14 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $33 +$11 +33%
Will Real Madrid vs. Mallorca end in a draw? May 14 $22 +$14 +67%
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan May 14 $22 $0 -2%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 09 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the next Pope require 5–6 ballots? May 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $33 +$14 +43%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 09 $30 −$16 -53%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 08 $13 +$798 +6144%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 29 $5 +$7 +133%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? Apr 22 $10 −$2 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $58 36m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $58 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $87 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $44 9d
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? SELL Yes $15 9d
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $30 9d
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? BUY Yes $33 16d
Will Real Madrid vs. Mallorca end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 400d
Will Real Madrid vs. Mallorca end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $20 400d
Will Real Madrid vs. Mallorca end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 400d
Will Real Madrid vs. Mallorca end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 400d
Will Real Madrid vs. Mallorca end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 401d
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan SELL PSG 58¢ $22 401d
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan BUY PSG 59¢ $22 406d
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? BUY Yes $1 406d
Will the next Pope require 5–6 ballots? BUY Yes $5 406d
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? SELL Yes 100¢ $811 407d
Will the next Pope require 5–6 ballots? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 407d
Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope? BUY Yes $4 407d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY Yes $0 407d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY Yes $0 407d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY Yes $1 407d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY Yes $0 407d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY Yes $1 407d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY Yes $2 407d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY Yes $0 407d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY Yes $1 407d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY Yes $1 407d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY Yes $0 407d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY Yes $0 407d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.15 · official $224.15 (match) · 65 history records