Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x717c…36f5 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$8
sports 10% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-73.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -70.6% -73.4% 25% 25% -12.5%
≤30d 4 -70.6% -73.4% 25% 25% -12.5%
≤90d 4 -70.6% -73.4% 25% 25% -12.5%
all 4 -70.6% -73.4% 25% 25% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.4% 25% -12.5%
10% -76.0% 0% -20.9%
15% -78.3% 0% -28.5%
20% -80.4% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $47 +$8 +17%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $3 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $54 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $47 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $3 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $3 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 20¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.63 · official $54.63 (match) · 8 history records