Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x717f…8cad sports 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%22W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$4
politics 20% $0
other 20% −$1
crypto 13% −$15
economics 6% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 5 -0.6% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.2%
all 154 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses22 / 132
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage162d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 19 $35 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $118 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $109 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 12 $77 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $79 +$1 +1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 12 $39 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $33 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $33 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 11d
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $28 18d
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $28 19d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $28 26d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $28 26d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $35 39d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $35 42d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 127d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 127d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 97¢ $20 127d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 97¢ $15 127d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 97¢ $35 127d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 127d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 127d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $36 127d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $35 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $35 127d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $36 127d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $36 127d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $35 127d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $35 127d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? SELL No 94¢ $35 127d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? BUY No 94¢ $35 127d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 127d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 127d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 98¢ $26 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 641 history records