Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7185…4896 crypto 242 markets active 0h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,474 (+19%) realized +$2,544 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%77W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$255
7 days+$915
14 days−$560
30 days+$632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$392
sports 17% +$1,005
tech 4% −$93
other 4% −$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +4.6% -5.4% 33% 33% +3.6%
≤30d 200 -14.5% -22.7% 26% 26% -3.7%
≤90d 225 -5.4% -14.4% 33% 31% +0.8%
all 233 -6.6% -15.5% 33% 31% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 31% -1.8%
10% -23.6% 30% -11.2%
15% -31.0% 30% -19.8%
20% -37.7% 29% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$45 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized+$2,544
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses77 / 156
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions9
Markets (closed)233 / 242
History coverage180d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 17¢ 22¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+46%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $263 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$106 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$122 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $73 +$137 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$59 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$173 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$160 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$160 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $92 +$206 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $121 −$115 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $74 +$190 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$379 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$162 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $73 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$190 +359%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$106 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $68 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$95 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $89 +$291 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$106 +202%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $53 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $53 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $158 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $175 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.24 · official $226.16 · 840 history records