Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7186…be09 crypto 99 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (172 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate75%74W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day172.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (172 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +6.0% -4.1% 75% 52% -11.1%
≤30d 99 +6.0% -4.1% 75% 52% -11.1%
≤90d 99 +6.0% -4.1% 75% 52% -11.1%
all 99 +6.0% -4.1% 75% 52% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover172.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 52% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 36% -19.6%
15% -21.6% 27% -27.4%
20% -29.3% 16% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$77 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses74 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage1d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day172.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $286 −$280 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $175 +$118 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $332 −$149 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $152 −$15 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $44 +$32 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$42 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $124 +$27 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $48 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $122 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $64 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $121 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $195 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $122 +$29 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $202 −$25 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $183 +$26 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $181 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $95 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $154 −$59 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $126 +$27 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $153 +$56 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $256 −$152 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $81 −$80 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $153 +$64 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $250 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $153 +$58 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $16 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $286 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $175 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $96 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $195 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $130 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $44 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $30 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $69 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $70 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $55 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $48 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $39 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 260 history records