Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
71 0x7187…f08b crypto 263 markets active 3h ago coverage 105d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,542 (+2%) realized +$5,706 · open −$1,164
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%119W / 138L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$765per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$1,107est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$31,629now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$3,489
world 25% +$6,232
sports 11% +$5,291
finance 9% +$450
crypto 4% +$97
politics 1% +$40
weather 0% +$86
culture 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +68.1% +52.1% 100% 100% +7.2%
≤30d 47 +14.6% +3.7% 60% 55% +7.1%
≤90d 227 -4.5% -13.6% 45% 39% -2.9%
all 257 +1.2% -8.5% 46% 40% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 40% -2.5%
10% -17.2% 39% -11.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.2% 35% -20.4%
20% -32.6% 31% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$107 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$31,629
Realized+$5,706
Unrealized−$1,164
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses119 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,107
Open positions6
Markets (closed)257 / 263
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$765
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 78¢ $15,096 $16,478 +$1,382 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $7,158 $5,820 −$1,338 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5,205 $5,125 −$80 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,887 $3,810 −$1,077 (-22%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $447 $395 −$52 (-12%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $8,585 +$1,373 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 27 $643 +$240 +37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 27 $287 +$92 +32%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 27 $5 +$7 +128%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 27 $10 +$13 +127%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 24 $52 +$42 +81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $9,351 +$3,865 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $3,641 +$1,044 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $3,498 +$1,591 +46%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7,706 −$66 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $486 +$484 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $236 −$230 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 08 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $123 −$47 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $31 +$23 +74%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gra Jun 06 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Jun 06 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 06 $29 +$40 +138%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $673 −$23 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $64 in June? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -57%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 June 1-7? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $2,057 +$390 +19%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $131 +$197 +150%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $140 +$195 +139%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $257 +$606 +236%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17,588 +$380 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 31 $2,913 +$838 +29%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $102 +$89 +87%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $191 −$165 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $68 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $250 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 11h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 11h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $76 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $102 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $107 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,020 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $27 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,629.44 · official $31,629.44 (match) · 3500 history records