Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x718c…9515 crypto 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$168 (+7%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%72W / 52L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$49
14 days+$49
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -4.9% -14.0% 65% 52% -7.2%
≤30d 118 -12.2% -20.5% 58% 43% -8.7%
≤90d 124 -11.9% -20.3% 58% 44% -8.7%
all 124 -11.9% -20.3% 58% 44% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 44% -8.7%
10% -27.9% 16% -17.4%
15% -34.9% 10% -25.4%
20% -41.3% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses72 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage32d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$24 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $194 −$31 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $158 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $69 −$28 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $71 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $46 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $55 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $27 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $30 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $45 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 470 history records