Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x718c…0d6b other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate18%8W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% −$10
other 14% −$1
economics 3% $0
sports 2% +$17
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +6.6% -3.6% 18% 6% -7.7%
≤90d 32 +7.6% -2.7% 19% 6% -8.1%
all 45 +4.7% -5.3% 18% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 4% -9.4%
10% -14.4% 4% -18.1%
15% -22.6% 4% -26.0%
20% -30.2% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses8 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage620d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $8 +$9 +114%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $137 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 18 $7 +$10 +129%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 12 $5 $0 +4%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $10 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 27 $10 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $24 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $25 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $33 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $2 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $196 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $985 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,983 −$4 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $173 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 34m
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 20h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 21h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 35h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 37h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $8 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $13 12d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 22d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.30 · official $41.30 (match) · 270 history records