Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:35:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
71 0x718c…becc sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$179 (-27%) realized −$188 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%31W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$8
14 days−$16
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$11
other 25% −$44
crypto 21% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.3% -31.6% 25% 25% -40.5%
≤30d 63 -39.3% -45.1% 32% 32% -54.7%
≤90d 82 -24.7% -31.9% 38% 37% -40.0%
all 82 -24.7% -31.9% 38% 37% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 37% -40.0%
10% -38.4% 37% -45.7%
15% -44.3% 35% -51.0%
20% -49.8% 29% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses31 / 51
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)82 / 90
History coverage44d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $9 $50 +$40 (+426%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 75¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 58¢ 57¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Mauricio Ruffy 82¢ 81¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 81¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 80¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Thunder 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) Belal Muhammad 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $6 $0 -7%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +44%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $6 +$4 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $6 +$4 +60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14 −$14 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $6 −$6 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $6 +$4 +59%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 24 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 24 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $5 +$5 +86%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $6 +$4 +57%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $7 +$3 +52%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $6 −$6 -92%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $5 −$5 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $40 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 80¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 81¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 82¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $15 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $12 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 47h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 52¢ $5 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $6 7d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 7d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 7d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 9d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 36¢ $4 16d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 21d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 21d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 21d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $6 21d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 61¢ $6 21d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 61¢ $6 21d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Thunder 50¢ $5 21d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 100¢ $10 21d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 5¢ $0 22d
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Seattle Mariners 8¢ $1 22d
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.77 · official $149.78 (match) · 178 history records