Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
71 0x718e…c203 other 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,710 (-0%) realized −$1,712 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%33W / 152L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,831per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$29
14 days−$38
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1,973
politics 36% −$163
sports 13% +$380
world 2% −$6
culture 2% −$7
economics 1% $0
tech 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 +4.9% -5.1% 8% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 129 +4.4% -5.5% 8% 5% -9.5%
all 185 +4.6% -5.3% 18% 13% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 13% -10.0%
10% -14.4% 13% -18.6%
15% -22.7% 11% -26.5%
20% -30.3% 11% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,653) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$23 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized−$1,712
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses33 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)185 / 187
History coverage130d
Avg bet$1,831
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $220 $220 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $163 $164 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $231 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,137 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $1,707 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $237 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $1,447 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,591 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $222 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,707 −$6 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $256 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $6,184 −$6 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,275 −$7 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $212 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,609 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $815 +$5 +1%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,707 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,204 −$4 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 11 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,943 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,467 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $5,447 −$6 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $912 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $60 +$61 +101%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $2,432 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,600 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,455 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,882 −$8 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $53 +$71 +134%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $60 +$63 +105%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,226 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,932 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $5,605 −$7 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,519 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $3,542 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $4,012 −$5 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $5,500 −$6 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2,345 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,653 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,834 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $9,642 −$11 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $66 +$41 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $230 1h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $231 4h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 4h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $206 7h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $247 24h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $248 26h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $237 26h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $237 27h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 29h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 31h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $218 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $219 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $208 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $208 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $222 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 5d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $256 5d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $256 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $236 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $211 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $215 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.43 · official $384.43 (match) · 702 history records