Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x718f…f25a other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$123 (-2%) realized +$9 · open −$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%43W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$198
14 days−$87
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$230
sports 18% −$380
tech 7% −$27
finance 6% −$41
politics 0% −$4
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -29.1% -35.8% 33% 33% +0.0%
≤30d 92 -14.6% -22.7% 43% 39% -11.2%
≤90d 100 -16.8% -24.7% 43% 38% -11.3%
all 100 -16.8% -24.7% 43% 38% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 38% -11.3%
10% -31.9% 34% -19.8%
15% -38.5% 26% -27.5%
20% -44.5% 19% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$33 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses43 / 57
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage35d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 23? Down 68¢ 100¢ $273 $401 +$128 (+47%)
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? Up 26¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 23? Up 55¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 23? Up 74¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $136 +$59 +44%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $100 −$41 -41%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -97%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $45 −$25 -56%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 23 $121 −$121 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 23 $202 +$209 +103%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 19 $134 −$134 -100%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 +$40 +79%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $130 +$316 +243%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $26 +$12 +48%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $384 −$384 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $272 +$89 +33%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$28 +128%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $183 +$220 +120%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +96%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $278 −$276 -99%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $113 +$6 +6%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $173 −$21 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +393%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $212 −$179 -84%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $242 −$242 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$16 -69%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $152 +$33 +22%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$88 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 65¢ $65 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 74¢ $74 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 78¢ $79 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 58¢ $60 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 62¢ $62 1h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 34¢ $30 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 72¢ $12 2h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 72¢ $27 2h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 58¢ $59 2h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 5¢ $4 2h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 5¢ $2 2h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 16¢ $17 2h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 32¢ $3 2h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 76¢ $38 2h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 26¢ $1 2h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 23? SELL Up 34¢ $20 2h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 74¢ $38 3h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 74¢ $45 3h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 50¢ $25 12h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 60¢ $31 13h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 26¢ $2 18h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 26¢ $0 18h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 26¢ $5 18h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 26¢ $5 18h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 26¢ $5 18h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 26¢ $5 18h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 26¢ $5 18h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 26¢ $5 18h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 26¢ $5 18h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 86¢ $101 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.53 · official $401.53 (match) · 440 history records