Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x718f…1dc3 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$59 (+23%) realized +$62 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$32
other 16% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +59.4% +44.2% 29% 29% +52.9%
≤30d 7 +59.4% +44.2% 29% 29% +52.9%
≤90d 7 +59.4% +44.2% 29% 29% +52.9%
all 7 +59.4% +44.2% 29% 29% +52.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.2% 29% +52.9%
10% +30.4% 29% +38.3%
15% +17.8% 29% +24.9%
20% +6.2% 29% +12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$6 · ×7.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$40 +784%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -62%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11h
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.49 · official $167.49 (match) · 15 history records