Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7193…1a92 sports 64 markets active 3h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60 (-12%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%17W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$23
14 days−$51
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$6
other 24% +$17
crypto 15% −$52
world 13% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 33% -18.2%
≤30d 62 -10.8% -19.3% 27% 27% -23.5%
≤90d 62 -10.8% -19.3% 27% 27% -23.5%
all 62 -10.8% -19.3% 27% 27% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 27% -23.5%
10% -27.0% 27% -30.8%
15% -34.1% 26% -37.5%
20% -40.5% 23% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses17 / 45
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage14d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 -20%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 -9%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$7 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 +$8 +113%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +274%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$17 +411%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$10 +248%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +108%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -91%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -78%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $20 −$11 -55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $16 −$1 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: Costa Rica O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $5 −$2 -38%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $4 −$1 -21%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$14 +138%
Exact Score: Belarus 1 - 1 Burkina Faso? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 +$8 +164%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 10 $6 +$13 +214%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $12 +$14 +113%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $20 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$4 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $28 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $12 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $3 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $3 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $7 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 40¢ $7 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $20 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $2 6d
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.95 · official $6.95 (match) · 137 history records