Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x719c…1b73 crypto 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%33W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days+$40
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 38% +$5
sports 32% +$23
crypto 21% −$52
other 9% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +37.8% +24.7% 80% 80% +39.0%
≤30d 19 +19.4% +8.0% 74% 63% -0.7%
≤90d 102 -27.7% -34.6% 30% 28% -11.4%
all 105 -26.6% -33.6% 31% 29% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 29% -11.4%
10% -40.0% 27% -19.9%
15% -45.8% 26% -27.6%
20% -51.1% 24% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses33 / 72
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage95d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 96¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 54¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$7 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 +$24 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$6 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$2 -34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$21 +108%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 08 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $26 −$22 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $14 +$6 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 05 $75 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $12 +$8 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $9 +$6 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $14 −$7 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 25? May 26 $18 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24? May 26 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $10 −$4 -44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 14? May 13 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 06 $2 +$13 +669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 06 $2 +$5 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 02 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Over 96¢ $20 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Over 96¢ $76 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $7 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $13 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $96 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $18 34h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $18 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 34h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $4 43h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $9 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? SELL No 15¢ $3 15d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? SELL No 15¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? BUY No 88¢ $26 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $100 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? BUY No 52¢ $3 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? BUY No 97¢ $97 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 86¢ $17 17d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? BUY No 94¢ $75 17d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 17d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 25d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 25d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27? SELL No 36¢ $7 25d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27? BUY No 71¢ $14 25d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26? BUY No 63¢ $9 27d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25? SELL No 36¢ $6 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.07 · official $119.98 (match) · 202 history records