Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
71 0x719c…ff50 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 684d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$706now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$6
other 24% −$8
politics 24% $0
culture 10% −$2
world 6% −$4
tech 6% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -11.4% -19.9% 46% 8% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 8% -10.2%
10% -27.5% 8% -18.8%
15% -34.5% 4% -26.6%
20% -41.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

684d coverage
Net worth$706
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage684d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $205 $205 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 100¢ 99¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? No 79¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $400 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 02 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $200 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 02 $362 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Sophie Baek get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4? Mar 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate a Mar 07 $1 $0 +6%
U.S. strikes Afghanistan by Dec 31? Feb 06 $1 $0 +2%
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy in 2025? Feb 06 $2 $0 +2%
Odell Beckham Jr. in jail in 2025? Feb 06 $2 $0 +9%
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? Dec 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will Chuck Schumer endorse Mamdani? Nov 06 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Philadelphia Phillies 3-1? Oct 08 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - July 5, 4AM ET Jul 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jul 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Megaquake in 2025? Feb 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Jan 13 $1 $0 +43%
Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? Dec 01 $422 −$5 -1%
Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election? Nov 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will Mitt Romney endorse Kamala? Oct 20 $13 $0 +3%
Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack? Oct 04 $1 $0 +4%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Sep 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Argentina dollarize in 2024? Sep 18 $7 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Aug 03 $222 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $205 1h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $300 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $400 34d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $301 34d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $110 34d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $300 36d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $299 36d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $300 36d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $110 36d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $400 36d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $211 77d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $200 77d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $181 77d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $181 77d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $179 77d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $181 77d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $211 77d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $200 77d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $229 101d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $230 102d
Will Sophie Baek get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 132d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate a BUY No 94¢ $1 169d
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $1 176d
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $1 176d
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $1 176d
U.S. strikes Afghanistan by Dec 31? BUY No 98¢ $1 196d
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 224d
Will Chuck Schumer endorse Mamdani? BUY No 70¢ $1 235d
Will Chuck Schumer endorse Mamdani? SELL No 65¢ $1 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $705.86 · official $705.86 (match) · 74 history records