trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 6 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 26 | -11.4% | -19.9% | 46% | 8% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.9% | 8% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -27.5% | 8% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -34.5% | 4% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -41.0% | 0% | -33.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $300 | $300 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $205 | $205 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $200 | $200 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? | No | 79¢ | 86¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | May 14 | $400 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 14 | $600 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? | May 14 | $110 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Apr 02 | $211 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 02 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Apr 02 | $362 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Mar 09 | $230 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Sophie Baek get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4? | Mar 07 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate a | Mar 07 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| U.S. strikes Afghanistan by Dec 31? | Feb 06 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy in 2025? | Feb 06 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Odell Beckham Jr. in jail in 2025? | Feb 06 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? | Dec 04 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Chuck Schumer endorse Mamdani? | Nov 06 | $2 | +$1 | +25% |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Philadelphia Phillies 3-1? | Oct 08 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| XRP Up or Down - July 5, 4AM ET | Jul 04 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw | Jul 04 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Megaquake in 2025? | Feb 21 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | Jan 13 | $1 | $0 | +43% |
| Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? | Dec 01 | $422 | −$5 | -1% |
| Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election? | Nov 29 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mitt Romney endorse Kamala? | Oct 20 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack? | Oct 04 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | Sep 18 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Argentina dollarize in 2024? | Sep 18 | $7 | $0 | -1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? | Aug 03 | $222 | −$4 | -2% |