Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:11:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
71 0x719d…10fb politics 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,942 (-2%) realized −$1,942 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%24W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$925per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$11
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$65
other 28% −$231
sports 12% −$1,649
culture 3% −$3
economics 3% −$3
world 2% −$21
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 45 -2.3% -11.6% 9% 0% -10.6%
all 112 -5.8% -14.8% 21% 10% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 10% -11.3%
10% -22.9% 10% -19.8%
15% -30.4% 7% -27.5%
20% -37.2% 4% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,197) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$670
Realized−$1,942
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses24 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage152d
Avg bet$925
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $670 $670 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $278 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,640 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,519 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,168 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $897 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,174 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,016 −$5 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,556 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $5,499 −$6 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $303 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $511 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $418 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,642 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,436 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,901 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $5,108 −$6 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,509 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,286 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 01 $573 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,991 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,949 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $335 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $333 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2,807 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $309 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $662 −$662 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $32 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 28 $712 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 28 $120 $0 +0%
Blackhawks vs. Blue Jackets Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Flyers vs. Capitals Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $318 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $319 4h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $278 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $278 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $312 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $312 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $400 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $400 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $240 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $241 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $670 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $929 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $930 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,032 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,034 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $870 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $872 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,180 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,182 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $895 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $897 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $937 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $938 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,172 19d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,174 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,269 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,271 20d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,063 23d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,064 23d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $618 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $669.90 · official $669.90 (match) · 388 history records