Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x719e…2f7a other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$242 (-37%) realized −$239 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$140
sports 25% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-74.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -71.4% -74.1% 17% 17% -53.9%
≤30d 6 -71.4% -74.1% 17% 17% -53.9%
≤90d 6 -71.4% -74.1% 17% 17% -53.9%
all 6 -71.4% -74.1% 17% 17% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.1% 17% -53.9%
10% -76.6% 17% -58.3%
15% -78.8% 17% -62.3%
20% -80.9% 17% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$68 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$239
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage7d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $97 $94 −$3 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $98 −$97 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $155 +$96 +62%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $33 −$30 -90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $115 −$113 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $98 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $49 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $98 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $155 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $33 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $115 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $78 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.39 · official $141.39 (match) · 10 history records