Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x719f…0884 world 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%27W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$3
other 24% −$4
politics 19% −$1
sports 9% −$5
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 3% -9.7%
all 90 -3.5% -12.7% 30% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 4% -9.9%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -28.7% 1% -26.4%
20% -35.7% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses27 / 63
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage535d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $168 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $75 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $32 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $25 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $72 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $122 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $78 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $9 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $78 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $37 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $2 $0 +23%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $36 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $45 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $136 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $5 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $20 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $22 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $31 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $31 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $34 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $34 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $31 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $31 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $24 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $24 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $3 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 14d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.92 · official $28.91 (match) · 355 history records