Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x71a2…7e26
politics · 59 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage319d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 22¢ 28¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $67 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $117 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -14%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $14 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $56 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 $0 +8%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 20 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Aug 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $38 $0 -1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Au Aug 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 07 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $1 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$3
politics 22% +$1
other 20% $0
tech 7% −$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $13 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $52 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $52 5h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $67 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $14 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $20 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $33 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $60 36h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $3 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $33 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $21 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $47 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $3 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $54 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $56 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $59 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $64 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $64 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $64 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $64 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 0% -9.8%
all 58 +0.3% -9.3% 34% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.00 · official $19.00 (match) · 195 history records