Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
71 0x71a9…da0a sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$479 (+6%) realized +$452 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$677per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$534
weather 21% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.3% -6.6% 90% 40% -1.8%
≤30d 10 +3.3% -6.6% 90% 40% -1.8%
≤90d 10 +3.3% -6.6% 90% 40% -1.8%
all 10 +3.3% -6.6% 90% 40% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 40% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 20% -11.2%
15% -23.7% 10% -19.8%
20% -31.1% 10% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$25 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×21.35 per $1 lost it wins $21.35
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,527
Realized+$452
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$677
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,500 $1,527 +$27 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $500 +$15 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,007 +$290 +29%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $201 +$37 +18%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $202 +$127 +63%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,001 +$31 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $801 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $701 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $500 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,000 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,297 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,007 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,000 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 84¢ $201 20h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 61¢ $202 23h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY eSuba 88¢ $4 24h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 99¢ $1,000 29h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $1,032 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 30h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Mexico 97¢ $1,001 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,527.47 · official $1,527.47 (match) · 21 history records