Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
71 0x71aa…f159 sports 91 markets active 3h ago coverage 113d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$122 (+18%) realized +$137 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate66%44W / 23L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$121
14 days+$120
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$132
crypto 16% +$33
other 15% −$18
politics 11% −$20
world 9% −$24
finance 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +67.4% +51.5% 70% 70% +41.4%
≤30d 47 +39.6% +26.3% 66% 66% +23.8%
≤90d 62 +42.0% +28.5% 69% 66% +20.9%
all 67 +33.5% +20.8% 66% 63% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.8% 63% +11.8%
10% +9.2% 61% +1.1%
15% -1.3% 48% -8.6%
20% -11.0% 39% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +63% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses44 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions24
Markets (closed)67 / 91
History coverage113d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 44¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 65¢ 90¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 60¢ 76¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 39¢ 44¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 79¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 67¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-67%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? Yes 75¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 79¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? No 58¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? Yes 39¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 1.5 Under 35¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +95%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$7 +226%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 +$15 +365%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $9 +$11 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $30 +$8 +26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $30 +$15 +50%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 +$9 +307%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$17 +284%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$13 +206%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $8 +$6 +79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +124%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$10 +388%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$4 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$13 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $59 +$15 +25%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 13 $5 +$4 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $2 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $7 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $3 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $7 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 23h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 23h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $3 23h
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 23h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $4 37h
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY No 58¢ $2 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $4 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $30 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 2d
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $3 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 25¢ $3 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $3 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.68 · official $104.95 (match) · 233 history records