Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:35:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71ac…1737 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$2
other 30% $0
politics 18% −$1
crypto 6% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 12 -8.0% -16.8% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -8.0% -16.8% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 36 -2.8% -12.0% 56% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage452d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 31¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $27 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $13 +$1 +6%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $29 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $73 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 17 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 10 $3 $0 +16%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec May 31 $21 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 26 $4 $0 -9%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will 'The Apothecary Diaries' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 22 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend? Apr 03 $23 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $27 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $20 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $7 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $4 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $23 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $28 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $28 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $27 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $1 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $31 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $31 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $24 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.97 · official $0.00 · 153 history records