Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x71ad…b8ca
other · 157 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$10 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses60 / 94
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)154 / 157
History coverage444d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 3 History 154 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $52 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $27 −$14 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $25 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $27 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $54 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $23 $0 -2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $33 $0 -0%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $28 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $29 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $86 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $110 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $14 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $87 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 29% +$2
world 24% −$13
politics 19% −$1
sports 11% −$1
economics 8% $0
crypto 6% +$2
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $19 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $18 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $20 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $20 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $20 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $18 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $6 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $13 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $18 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $13 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $18 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 57% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 21 -1.7% -11.0% 43% 5% -11.1%
≤90d 73 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 1% -10.0%
all 154 +0.2% -9.4% 39% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.66 · official $13.60 (match) · 549 history records