Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71ad…5708 crypto 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-10%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate60%124W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days−$9
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$46
other 26% −$14
world 7% −$60
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +14.3% +3.4% 81% 25% +1.6%
≤30d 205 -14.3% -22.5% 60% 24% -20.9%
≤90d 205 -14.3% -22.5% 60% 24% -20.9%
all 205 -14.3% -22.5% 60% 24% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 24% -20.9%
10% -29.9% 13% -28.5%
15% -36.7% 8% -35.4%
20% -42.9% 6% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses124 / 81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)205 / 205
History coverage27d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 205 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 06 $8 −$2 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 3h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 14h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 14h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 575 history records