Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71ae…acdc crypto 103 markets active 7h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$160 (-5%) realized −$131 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%52W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$45
14 days−$222
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$150
other 16% −$6
weather 3% −$81
tech 2% +$11
world 2% −$9
politics 2% +$20
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +0.0% -9.5% 62% 44% -7.5%
≤30d 99 -16.5% -24.5% 51% 37% -16.1%
≤90d 100 -14.2% -22.4% 51% 38% -15.8%
all 101 -13.3% -21.6% 51% 39% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 39% -14.8%
10% -29.1% 29% -23.0%
15% -36.0% 18% -30.4%
20% -42.2% 12% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$131
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses52 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage589d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 63¢ 14¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-77%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $472 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $217 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$17 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $93 +$29 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $60 −$14 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $94 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $34 +$2 +4%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $54 −$24 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$11 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$5 +30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$9 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$3 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $54 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $291 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $186 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $201 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $9 34h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $87 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.04 · official $6.04 (match) · 516 history records