Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71af…e42e crypto 433 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,517 (+8%) realized +$1,517 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate55%238W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day137.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -20.6% -28.1% 39% 2% -9.8%
≤30d 432 -5.8% -14.7% 55% 25% -10.0%
≤90d 432 -5.8% -14.7% 55% 25% -10.0%
all 432 -5.8% -14.7% 55% 25% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 25% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 16% -18.6%
15% -30.3% 9% -26.4%
20% -37.2% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,517
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses238 / 194
Open positions1
Markets (closed)432 / 433
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day137.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $77 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $160 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $86 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $190 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $136 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $79 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $162 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $190 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $117 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $116 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $160 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $86 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $160 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $57 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $77 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $161 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $88 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $125 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $160 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $190 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $79 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $117 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $88 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $190 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $117 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $160 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $190 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$23 +301%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $32 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $47 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $17 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $35 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $32 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $21 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.29 · official $10.91 · 3500 history records