Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71af…6b3d crypto 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$454 (-6%) realized −$456 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%102W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$86
14 days+$36
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$229
weather 23% −$296
sports 17% −$13
other 13% +$60
politics 8% −$552
world 2% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +59.0% +43.8% 50% 50% +5.7%
≤30d 19 +131.8% +109.7% 37% 37% -11.5%
≤90d 98 +22.5% +10.8% 38% 38% -24.5%
all 261 +0.4% -9.2% 39% 36% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 36% -17.4%
10% -17.9% 31% -25.3%
15% -25.8% 28% -32.5%
20% -33.1% 24% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$17 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$456
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses102 / 159
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)261 / 262
History coverage212d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $39 $40 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $153 −$76 -50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $175 +$225 +129%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$16 +161%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $64 −$21 -33%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $95 −$94 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$36 +247%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 05 $402 −$394 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 6? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $25 −$3 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $15 −$5 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $31 +$106 +343%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $12 +$271 +2334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $60 −$39 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2AM ET Jun 01 $28 −$5 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $18 +$17 +92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $14 +$49 +342%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 6? May 06 $84 −$82 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 06 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5? May 06 $39 +$21 +52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? May 05 $10 −$8 -84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5? May 05 $25 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2AM ET May 05 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1AM ET May 05 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11PM ET May 05 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 05 $34 +$30 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 05 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3AM ET May 04 $8 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2AM ET May 04 $17 −$10 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10PM ET May 04 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10AM ET May 03 $18 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9AM ET May 03 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 03 $9 +$7 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2AM ET May 03 $7 −$5 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12AM ET May 03 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11AM ET May 02 $18 +$8 +42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 30? Apr 30 $1 +$4 +433%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 30 $6 −$1 -18%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 30 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4AM ET Apr 30 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10PM ET Apr 30 $6 −$2 -26%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10AM ET Apr 29 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9AM ET Apr 29 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10PM ET Apr 29 $10 +$5 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Morocco 16¢ $0 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Morocco 15¢ $77 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $153 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $175 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $26 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 15¢ $43 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 20¢ $64 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 42h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $95 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 20¢ $53 10d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY Yes 14¢ $31 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 20d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY Yes 33¢ $65 20d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY Yes 39¢ $105 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 21d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY Yes 66¢ $201 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 70¢ $137 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 65¢ $280 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.11 · official $40.11 (match) · 667 history records