Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71af…626a other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$13
politics 34% −$12
sports 10% +$25
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 129 +0.1% -9.4% 10% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage130d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $231 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $198 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 27 $202 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $309 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $177 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $164 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $212 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $327 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $203 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $218 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $189 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $181 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $219 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $259 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $350 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $197 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $165 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $313 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $135 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $148 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $163 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $33 35h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 18d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 20d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 20d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 21d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $198 21d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $198 23d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $182 23d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $182 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $202 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $202 26d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $159 26d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $159 26d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 28d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 29d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 30d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 31d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $164 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $164 32d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $148 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 446 history records