Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71b1…9cbb other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-3%) realized −$126 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%54W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$183
14 days−$191
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$81
other 26% −$46
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -11.5% -20.0% 44% 37% -20.9%
≤30d 126 -13.6% -21.9% 43% 37% -21.4%
≤90d 126 -13.6% -21.9% 43% 37% -21.4%
all 126 -13.6% -21.9% 43% 37% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 37% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 35% -28.9%
15% -36.2% 29% -35.8%
20% -42.4% 22% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses54 / 72
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)126 / 131
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 Over 85¢ 100¢ $350 $412 +$62 (+18%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 80¢ 100¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $31 $34 +$3 (+10%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-47%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 $0 +1%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$6 +30%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $134 +$32 +24%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$11 -56%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $133 −$131 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$14 +46%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2 +$2 +82%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $57 −$56 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $82 −$66 -80%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $21 +$12 +58%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $98 +$23 +23%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +42%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 27 $1 $0 +29%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $2 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 27 $1 $0 +9%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +55%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $7 +$4 +55%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $36 +$18 +51%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$13 +130%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +103%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$31 +62%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +50%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -40%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 $0 -5%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$7 +73%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $31 +$58 +188%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$8 +79%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $43 +$18 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 47m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 50m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 86¢ $26 55m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $49 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $151 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $166 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $201 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $101 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $34 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $133 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 82¢ $44 5h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 6h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 8h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 8h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 8h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 8h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 23h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $529.87 · official $529.87 (match) · 231 history records