Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
71 0x71b2…7a4b sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$64 (+5%) realized +$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$537
14 days+$556
30 days+$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$449
other 25% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +41.8% +28.3% 70% 70% +35.8%
≤30d 11 +44.9% +31.1% 73% 73% +36.3%
≤90d 11 +44.9% +31.1% 73% 73% +36.3%
all 11 +44.9% +31.1% 73% 73% +36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.1% 73% +36.3%
10% +18.5% 73% +23.3%
15% +7.1% 64% +11.4%
20% -3.4% 45% +0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$18 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.46 per $1 lost it wins $11.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage8d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 48¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $123 +$49 +40%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win Jun 26 $223 +$145 +65%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $121 +$29 +24%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $135 +$249 +185%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 Jun 22 $294 −$8 -3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $91 +$72 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win o Jun 20 $20 +$37 +180%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $123 6h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 60¢ $25 25h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 29¢ $20 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win BUY 60¢ $223 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $121 2d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: France O/ BUY 17¢ $0 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY 34¢ $135 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 SELL 48¢ $8 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 57¢ $20 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 BUY 56¢ $10 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 SELL 43¢ $151 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 BUY 56¢ $203 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 SELL 64¢ $11 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 BUY 56¢ $10 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 SELL 61¢ $81 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 BUY 38¢ $51 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 SELL 65¢ $34 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 BUY 38¢ $20 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 55¢ $91 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win o BUY 35¢ $20 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.10 · official $29.10 (match) · 32 history records