Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71b5…d067 weather 539 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,110 (+2%) realized +$2,533 · open −$423
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%216W / 298L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$8,146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% −$15,036
politics 39% −$375
other 4% +$65
sports 1% +$194
world 0% −$10
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +14.2% +3.3% 37% 29% -4.3%
≤30d 294 +20.4% +9.0% 53% 26% -10.2%
≤90d 514 +50.0% +35.8% 42% 25% -24.0%
all 514 +50.0% +35.8% 42% 25% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.8% 25% -24.0%
10% +22.8% 24% -31.3%
15% +10.9% 22% -37.9%
20% +0.0% 20% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +95% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$70 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$8,146
Realized+$2,533
Unrealized−$423
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses216 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions48
Markets (closed)514 / 539
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$197
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 57¢ $2,500 $2,875 +$375 (+15%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 42¢ $2,500 $2,125 −$375 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $1,500 $554 −$946 (-63%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $50 $398 +$348 (+695%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $50 $350 +$300 (+599%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $50 $314 +$264 (+527%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $50 $308 +$258 (+515%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $50 $200 +$150 (+299%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $50 $170 +$120 (+239%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $50 $134 +$84 (+167%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $57 $70 +$14 (+24%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 71¢ 68¢ $71 $68 −$2 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+35%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $57 $50 −$8 (-13%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $45 $44 −$2 (-3%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $57 $44 −$14 (-24%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 42¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+59%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $22 −$27 (-55%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-61%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$12 +282%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $31 +$69 +226%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $47 +$53 +114%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $43 +$57 +134%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $36 +$18 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$5 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$15 +976%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$9 +138%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $47 +$53 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $36 +$64 +180%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $82 +$18 +21%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $49 +$51 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $612 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$8 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$5 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$10 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 7h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $11 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $18 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,145.79 · official $8,153.43 (match) · 3500 history records